Ethereum Risks Plunging Towards $350 Following Rejected Spikes

A string of back-to-back upside rejections at a local top is putting Ethereum at risk of correcting lower towards $350. Looking…

A string of back-to-back upside rejections at a local top is putting Ethereum at risk of correcting lower towards $350.

Looking at ETH/USD 1H chart shows the pair attempting to close above $384, a resistance target that had held through extreme bullish biases in the past. It continues to defend bears as Ethereum traders repeatedly fail to push the prices above, leading to the formation of multiple lengthy wicks to the upside.

ETHUSD trades near the interim resistance area of $384-390. Source: TradingView.com
ETHUSD trades near the interim resistance area of $384-390. Source: TradingView.com

Technically, they represent rejected spikes–even hardcore attempts to take ETHUSD above $384 meet with equally strong selling pressure.

That leaves traders with the option to either keep testing the level for a breakout move while gathering more accumulators at the local support level ($375) or give up the area altogether to find serious buyers at further lower levels.

Breakout Scenario

As shown in the chart above, Ethereum is technically trading inside an Ascending Triangle. A horizontal line/area in purple coupled with a rising trendline with more than two higher lows attests to the technical pattern.

An Ascending Triangle is a continuation signal, which means that traders expect it to push the price in the direction of its previous trend. Once the breakout occurs, they open buy or sell positions depending on the direction of the price move. The length of the breakout, meanwhile, is typically the same as the maximum height of the Triangle.

Example of Ascending Triangle breakout in a downtrend. Source: Investopedia
Example of Ascending Triangle breakout in a downtrend. Source: Investopedia

Ethereum has more probability of breaking to the downside, given the trend before the Ascending Triangle formation was bearish. Should that happen, the cryptocurrency will pull back after failing to break above the $384-390 resistance area to retest the rising trendline (green) as support.

That price floor currently sits near $350, a psychological level for the next potential rebound.

Nevertheless, a negative breakout will occur if the Ethereum price breaks below the green trendline. That would mean an extended downside move – of about $67 based on the maximum height of the Triangle. All and all, ETH/USD risks falling to $283 if the bearish pattern holds valid.

Ethereum Bullish Scenario

Conversely, if Ethereum manages to break above the $384-390 range, then it would eye an extended upside momentum towards $450 or above. That would also mark a trend reversal. It means ETH/USD could pursue further upside targets by flipping $384-390 from a resistance area to support.

“Ethereum is essentially trapped in between two important Quarterly levels $360 and $391,” said an analyst. “Its Quarterly candle closes in less than two weeks. A close above $360 could be enough to preserve ETH’s bullish momentum and avoid the further downside.”

ETH/USD was up 4.45 percent ahead of the New York trading session Thursday.

Ethereum 2.0 Moves Closer But Hoskinson Raises Doubts Over its Security

Phase 0 of Ethereum 2.0 took a step forward today following the submission of EIP 2982. Phase 0, also known as…

Phase 0 of Ethereum 2.0 took a step forward today following the submission of EIP 2982. Phase 0, also known as the “beacon chain,” refers to the transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake.

More specifically, in Phase 0, the goal is to lay the groundwork for staking and the operation of sharding chains.

“At first, the beacon chain will be responsible for registering validators and coordinating everyone’s staked ETH. This is foundational to the rest of Eth2 and lays the groundwork for the shard chains.”

Product Marketing Manager at Set Labs, Anthony Sassano, tweeted news of the GitHub submission, much to the delight of his followers.

Following months of delays and uncertainty, this finally gave Ethereum holders something to cheer about. As yet, no date for the Phase 0 rollout has been given.

However, Ethereum developer Afri Schoedon previously stated that a November 2020 rollout is likely, barring the discovery of critical issues.

“The Ethereum 2.0 beacon chain will launch in November unless we find severe bugs in clients or protocol. I’m in-between Vitalk and Justin with my estimation here, I don’t think that we necessarily need to delay Ethereum 2.0 into 2021 unless we find critical issues. We are well on track for a late 2020 launch.”

Taking into account the submission of EIP 2982, Schoedon’s rollout date does look likely.

Ethereum is up 4% on the day having broken key resistance at the $370 level.

Ethereum daily chart with volume. (Source: tradingview.com)

Hoskinson Raises Doubts Over Ethereum’s Security

Throughout this period, many have questioned whether the Ethereum team can deliver the goods under time pressure.

Ethereum co-founder, Vitalik Buterin was heavily criticized for saying Phase 0 should launch even if it isn’t ready.

With that, IOHK CEO Charles Hoskinson tweeted his concerns over the rush to finish. In particular, Hoskinson drew attention to the Gasper finality protocol used in Ethereum 2.0.

Referencing a Stanford University research paper titled “Ebb-and-Flow Protocols: A Resolution of the Availability-Finality Dilemma,” Hoskinson requested Buterin’s response to the findings.

Finality refers to the point at which transactions are final. In other words, once a transaction reaches finality no-one can change, reverse, or cancel it.

All cryptocurrency ledgers go through a process of the finalized ledger lagging the full ledger until network partitions catch up. The latency level of a chain will affect the chain’s finality rate and vice versa.

However, researchers simulated an attack on the Gasper protocol and discovered it was insecure under standard conditions.

“However, we discovered an attack in the standard synchronous network model, highlighting a general difficulty with existing finality-gadget-based designs.”

Hoskinson clarified the findings by saying, under Gasper, it’s possible for attackers to delay the syncing process between the finalized ledger and the full ledger. Meaning, an attacker could potentially change, reverse, or cancel a transaction during that extended latency period.

In particular, we discovered a liveness attack on Gasper in the standard synchronous model where messages can be delayed arbitrarily by the adversary up to a known network delay bound….

Buterin has yet to respond to the claims.

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SPREAD THE WORD

Check Other Blogs